← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 30, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
| Oxford win | 26% | 3.85 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Oxford +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.57 |
| Over | 38% | 2.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Japhet Tanganga · Millwall |
| 45' | ⚽ | Japhet Tanganga · Millwall |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ryan Leonard · Millwall |
| 64' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Millwall |
| 85' | ⚽ | Tyler Goodrham · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Saville · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Kassam Stadium |
| coach days | 395.00 | 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1518.73 | 1632.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.82 | 36.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.88 |
| league points | 17.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 35.60 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | -1.62 |
| solidity v1 | -2.07 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.29 |
| state index | -0.77 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.31 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.02 |