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Sheffield United 1–0 Sunderland

← EFL Championship 2024-25 Β· Fri, Nov 29, 08:00 PM UTC Β· ref: G. Ward

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win47%2.08
Draw28%3.41
Sunderland win25%4.00

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sunderland βˆ’0.553%1.84
Sheffield United βˆ’0.547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.67
Over42%2.32

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Jack Robinson · Sheffield United
35'🟨Harry Souttar · Sheffield United
40'πŸŸ₯Chris Mepham Β· Sunderland
45'🟨Harry Souttar · Sheffield United
45'πŸŸ₯Harry Souttar Β· Sheffield United
65'🟨Luke O'Nien · Sunderland
75'🟨Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United
83'⚽Tom Davies · Sheffield United
90'🟨Tom Davies · Sheffield United
90'🟨Ryan One · Sheffield United
90'🟨

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots16
4On target2
8Corners8
12Fouls8
4Yellow cards2
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedSunderland
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.750.59
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBramall Lane
Daniel Ballard
Β· Sunderland
1.80
coach days364.00151.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.733.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.07
dominance (last 5)0.500.52
elo1500.511510.11
elo momentum (last 5)57.45-5.48
eye test v10.85-0.62
eye trend v1-0.110.36
first sub minute (last 10)59.3069.50
form points (last 5)13.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.50
keeper form v10.810.78
league points37.0033.00
league rank1.003.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6077.40
possession avg (last 5)50.6044.60
rest days3.013.00
scorer concentration0.190.26
season ppg2.181.94
shot diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.0010.80
skill v10.75-0.61
solidity v11.011.00
sot against avg (last 5)2.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.20
squad age24.7923.39
state index0.82-0.13
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.210.25
threat rate (last 5)0.290.24
travel kmβ€”171.80
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.031.09
xg for avg (last 5)1.880.82