β EFL Championship 2024-25 Β· Wed, Nov 27, 08:00 PM UTC Β· ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 37% | 39% | 2.67 | value: +5% |
| Swansea win | 33% | 32% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby +0 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Swansea +0 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | β½ | Ε½an Vipotnik Β· Swansea |
| 14' | β½ | Ronald Β· Swansea |
| 34' | π¨ | Callum Elder Β· Derby |
| 65' | β½ (pen) | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing Β· Derby |
| 73' | π¨ | Myles Peart-Harris Β· Swansea |
| 88' | π¨ | Curtis Nelson Β· Derby |
| 90' | π¨ | Liam Thompson Β· Derby |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 818.00 | 331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1609.67 | 1599.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.42 | -5.59 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | β | 0.82 |
| league points | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | 1.05 |
| solidity v1 | 0.73 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.12 | 26.56 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| travel km | β | 220.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 1.74 |