← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Wed, Nov 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 65% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.39 |
| Luton win | 12% | 8.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −1.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Leeds −1.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.84 |
| Over | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Sam Byram · Leeds |
| 45' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Leeds |
| 50' | 🟨 | Daiki Hashioka · Luton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 81' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Largie Ramazani · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 515.00 | 757.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 3.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1555.26 | 1448.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.31 | -10.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 32.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.60 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.54 | -1.00 |
| solidity v1 | 1.86 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.23 | 27.64 |
| state index | 0.89 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 224.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.49 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 0.96 |