β EFL Championship 2024-25 Β· Sat, Nov 23, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 44% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 |
| Sunderland win | 26% | 3.90 |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall β0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Sunderland β0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.50 |
| Over | 35% | 2.75 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | β½ | Aaron Connolly Β· Sunderland |
| 77' | π¨ | Milan AleksiΔ Β· Sunderland |
| 86' | π¨ | Romain Esse Β· Millwall |
| 87' | π¨ | Chris Mepham Β· Sunderland |
| 90' | β½ | Femi Azeez Β· Millwall |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | β | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 296.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | β | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1515.65 | 1510.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.40 | 22.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 72.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | β | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| league points | 23.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 31.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 14.10 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.79 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 1.29 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | β | 25.11 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.68 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 0.83 |