← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 38% | 27% | 2.60 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 33% | 43% | 2.91 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sheffield United +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Tyrese Campbell · Sheffield United |
| 22' | ⚽ | Norman Bassette · Coventry |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Sheffield United |
| 44' | 🟥 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Norman Bassette · Coventry |
| 60' | 🟨 | Brandon Thomas-Asante · Coventry |
| 60' | 🟨 | Harrison Burrows · Sheffield United |
| 72' | 🟨 | Josh Eccles · Coventry |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sydie Peck · Sheffield United |
| 80' | ⚽ | Bobby Thomas · Coventry |
| 81' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Coventry Building Society Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Jack Rudoni · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 22.00 | 358.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1613.50 | 1696.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.52 | 31.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.82 |
| league points | 16.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.73 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.95 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 102.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.02 |