← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Davies
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 44% | 2.25 |
| Plymouth win | 29% | 3.34 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.62 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Plymouth +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.71 |
| Under | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Bali Mumba · Plymouth |
| 8' | ⚽ | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
| 23' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Plymouth |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 54' | 🟨 | Lewis Gibson · Plymouth |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 205.00 | 266.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1514.11 | 1439.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.70 | 35.54 |
| eye test v1 | -1.15 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 16.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 13.21 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | -0.54 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.48 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.55 | 1.01 |