← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 43% | 47% | 2.27 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.36 | fair |
| Coventry win | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Coventry −0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.84 |
| Over | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Patrick Roberts · Sunderland |
| 17' | ⚽ | Wilson Isidor · Sunderland |
| 35' | ⚽ | Dennis Cirkin · Sunderland |
| 62' | ⚽ | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 64' | 🟨 | Joel Latibeaudiere · Coventry |
| 69' | 🟨 | Wilson Isidor · Sunderland |
| 69' | 🟨 | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 69' | 🟨 | Luis Binks · Coventry |
| 84' | ⚽ | Jack Rudoni · Coventry |
| 90' | 🟨 | Norman Bassette · Coventry |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| Tatsuhiro Sakamoto · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 131.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1660.86 | 1610.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.15 | 11.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.80 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 30.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.90 |
| solidity v1 | 1.19 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.59 | — |
| state index | 0.70 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 274.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.67 |