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Norwich 0–2 Bristol City

← EFL Championship 2024-25 Β· Sat, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: F. Hallam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Norwich win44%2.20
Draw28%3.49
Bristol City win28%3.45

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Norwich βˆ’0.2551%1.90
Bristol City βˆ’0.2549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.89
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Anis Mehmeti · Bristol City
36'🟨Kellen Fisher · Norwich
63'⚽Nahki Wells · Bristol City
69'🟨Borja Sainz · Norwich

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots9
3On target2
3Corners3
16Fouls8
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricNorwichBristol City
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10β€”
box share (last 5)0.690.76
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueCarrow Road
coach days131.00374.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00β€”
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.20
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.063.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.09
dominance (last 5)0.450.40
elo1393.481493.13
elo momentum (last 5)-13.2920.61
eye test v10.52-0.48
eye trend v10.01-0.55
first sub minute (last 10)53.3040.10
form points (last 5)3.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.521.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.25β€”
keeper form v1β€”0.60
league points18.0019.00
league rank14.0010.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.8072.20
possession avg (last 5)58.8039.60
rest days3.803.80
scorer concentration0.520.19
season ppg1.291.36
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.60-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.2011.60
skill v11.25-0.93
solidity v1-0.710.57
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
squad age27.37β€”
state index-0.760.02
sterile dominance v11.03-0.96
threat rate (last 10)0.220.28
threat rate (last 3)0.200.17
threat rate (last 5)0.220.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.671.06
xg for avg (last 5)1.751.18