← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 55% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 |
| Plymouth win | 20% | 4.91 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Derby −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.86 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jerry Yates · Derby |
| 41' | ⚽ | Adam Randell · Plymouth |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mustapha Bundu · Plymouth |
| 57' | 🟨 | Kayden Jackson · Derby |
| 65' | 🟨 | Matthew Sorinola · Plymouth |
| 68' | 🟨 | Bali Mumba · Plymouth |
| 85' | 🟨 | Daniel Grimshaw · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 800.00 | 192.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1318.39 | 1517.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.99 | -46.53 |
| eye test v1 | -1.19 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | -0.65 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.36 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |