← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 41% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
| Millwall win | 29% | 3.32 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Stoke −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Josh Coburn · Millwall |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ben Gibson · Stoke |
| 50' | 🟨 | Wouter Burger · Stoke |
| 53' | 🟨 | Romain Esse · Millwall |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ben Gibson · Stoke |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ryan Wintle · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 69.00 | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1595.75 | 1632.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.51 | 42.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 18.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 36.20 |
| rest days | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -1.57 |
| solidity v1 | -0.86 | 1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.74 | 25.29 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 0.97 |