← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 8, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 54% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
| Oxford win | 20% | 5.04 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Watford −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.92 |
| Over | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 38' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Baah · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh McEachran · Oxford |
| 54' | ⚽ | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
| 62' | 🟨 | Festy Ebosele · Watford |
| 75' | 🟨 | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
| 76' | 🟨 | Elliott Moore · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Morris · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 252.00 | 373.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1427.69 | 1564.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.80 | -38.69 |
| eye test v1 | -1.22 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 22.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.80 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.96 | — |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.74 |