← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Wed, Nov 6, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 51% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
| Cardiff win | 23% | 4.27 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Cardiff −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 57' | ⚽ | Jacob Brown · Luton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Teden Mengi · Luton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Dimitris Goutas · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 736.00 | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1450.19 | 1422.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.64 | 63.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.29 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 28.04 | 28.24 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 196.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.56 |