← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Nov 5, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 49% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
| Watford win | 25% | 3.90 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Swansea −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Festy Ebosele · Watford |
| 35' | ⚽ | Myles Peart-Harris · Swansea |
| 40' | 🟨 | Matt Grimes · Swansea |
| 44' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Franco · Swansea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Francisco Sierralta · Watford |
| 79' | 🟨 | Myles Peart-Harris · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 309.00 | 249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1471.34 | 1434.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.40 | 27.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 16.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.31 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.51 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 1.16 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.84 | 28.37 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.44 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 243.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.04 |