← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 35% | 2.83 |
| Burnley win | 34% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Burnley +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.46 |
| Over | 34% | 2.86 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 23' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Millwall |
| 52' | ⚽ | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jeremy Sarmiento · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hannibal Mejbri · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 276.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 4.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1608.16 | 1732.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.71 | 2.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.40 | 0.91 |
| solidity v1 | 1.03 | 2.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 25.12 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | 1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 0.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.11 |