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Middlesbrough 0–3 Coventry

← EFL Championship 2024-25 Β· Sat, Nov 2, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: T. Bramall

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Middlesbrough win53%1.83
Draw24%4.10
Coventry win23%4.21

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry βˆ’0.7552%1.86
Middlesbrough βˆ’0.7548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.64
Under41%2.35

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough
22'🟨Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough
22'πŸŸ₯Hayden Hackney Β· Middlesbrough
25'🟨Jack Rudoni · Coventry
33'🟨Brandon Thomas-Asante · Coventry
42'⚽Bobby Thomas · Coventry
45'🟨Bobby Thomas · Coventry
76'⚽Haji Wright · Coventry
81'⚽Josh Eccles · Coventry
85'🟨George Edmundson · Middlesbrough

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots10
1On target4
6Corners8
4Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricMiddlesbroughCoventry
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.660.60
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueRiverside Stadium
coach days763.001.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.001.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.523.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.10
dominance (last 5)0.620.52
elo1668.261599.01
elo momentum (last 5)-9.233.53
eye test v10.770.11
eye trend v1-0.06-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)69.1051.50
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.580.72
league points18.0012.00
league rank9.0020.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.8078.40
possession avg (last 5)56.8053.60
rest days6.007.15
scorer concentration0.270.42
season ppg1.501.00
shot diff avg (last 5)6.202.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.6015.40
skill v11.320.16
solidity v10.74-0.02
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.305.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.80
squad age24.45β€”
state index0.330.19
sterile dominance v10.510.12
threat rate (last 10)0.300.30
threat rate (last 3)0.300.26
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
travel kmβ€”237.60
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.931.28
xg for avg (last 5)2.011.27