← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 42% | 26% | 2.30 | fair |
| Norwich win | 31% | 50% | 3.11 | value: +54% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Cardiff −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Kellen Fisher · Norwich |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andy Rinomhota · Cardiff |
| 52' | ⚽ | Borja Sainz · Norwich |
| 54' | 🟨 | David Turnbull · Cardiff |
| 77' | 🟨 | Callum O'Dowda · Cardiff |
| 82' | 🟨 | José Córdoba · Norwich |
| 89' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Callum O'Dowda · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 62.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1530.81 | 1674.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 59.06 | 11.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 1.04 |
| solidity v1 | 1.08 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.45 | 25.71 |
| state index | 0.82 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | 1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 333.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.68 |