← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 41% | 2.42 |
| Derby win | 31% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Stoke −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.92 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Thomas Cannon · Stoke |
| 48' | 🟨 | Marcus Harness · Derby |
| 54' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Phillips · Derby |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Viktor Johansson · Derby |
| 71' | 🟨 | Andrew Moran · Stoke |
| 77' | 🟨 | Enda Stevens · Stoke |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 82' | ⚽ | Ben Gibson · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 62.00 | 793.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1446.47 | 1307.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.50 | 27.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| league points | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 6.94 | 6.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -0.66 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.32 | — |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 49.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 0.88 |