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Oxford 1–2 Swansea

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea win41%2.38
Draw30%3.27
Oxford win30%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oxford +0.2552%1.89
Swansea +0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.77
Over45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'🟨Louie Sibley · Oxford
38'⚽Žan Vipotnik · Swansea
80'⚽Florian Bianchini · Swansea
84'🟨Josh Tymon · Swansea
88'⚽Dane Scarlett · Oxford

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots16
2On target5
1Corners8
15Fouls8
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOxfordSwansea
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.530.68
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Kassam Stadium
coach days367.00306.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.606.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.606.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.812.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.07
dominance (last 5)0.430.58
elo1574.321456.63
elo momentum (last 5)-31.33-30.21
eye test v1-0.46-0.32
eye trend v1-0.180.23
first sub minute (last 10)50.3062.00
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.710.83
league points14.0013.00
league rank16.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win7.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8086.00
possession avg (last 5)49.0067.20
rest days6.946.94
scorer concentration0.270.33
season ppg1.171.08
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.403.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.0013.20
skill v1-0.451.35
solidity v1-0.060.85
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
squad age—25.84
state index-0.40-0.63
sterile dominance v1-0.021.71
threat rate (last 10)0.210.18
threat rate (last 3)0.200.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.220.97
xg for avg (last 5)0.921.42