← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 39% | 29% | 2.45 | fair |
| Norwich win | 33% | 48% | 2.92 | value: +39% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich +0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Borja Sainz · Norwich |
| 13' | ⚽ | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
| 23' | 🟨 | Aidan Morris · Middlesbrough |
| 25' | 🟨 | George Edmundson · Middlesbrough |
| 40' | ⚽ | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
| 45' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Middlesbrough |
| 58' | 🟨 | Anis Ben Slimane · Norwich |
| 70' | 🟨 | Riley McGree · Middlesbrough |
| 71' | ⚽ | Borja Sainz · Norwich |
| 74' | 🟨 | Kellen Fisher · Norwich |
| 80' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| ⚽ (og) |
| Seny Dieng · Norwich |
| 87' | 🟥 | Kenny McLean · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 118.00 | 757.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1676.34 | 1666.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.93 | -2.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 68.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| league points | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 4.84 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.20 | 1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.57 | 25.08 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.19 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 274.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.73 |