← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 51% | 63% | 1.91 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.71 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 23% | 15% | 4.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Cardiff −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Josh Maja · West Brom |
| 39' | 🟨 | Perry Ng · Cardiff |
| 52' | 🟨 | Callum Styles · West Brom |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ollie Tanner · Cardiff |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rubin Colwill · Cardiff |
| 89' | 🟨 | Darnell Furlong · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Karlan Grant · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 756.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1690.20 | 1525.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.37 | 44.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| solidity v1 | 0.86 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.37 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| travel km | — | 143.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.85 |