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Sheffield United 2–0 Stoke

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win55%1.75
Draw25%3.85
Stoke win19%5.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stoke −0.7550%1.95
Sheffield United −0.7550%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.92
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Kieffer Moore · Sheffield United
36'🟨Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United
45'🟨Tyrese Campbell · Sheffield United
45'🟨Ben Gibson · Stoke
47'🟨Vinícius Souza · Sheffield United
50'⚽Tyrese Campbell · Sheffield United
75'🟨Rhian Brewster · Sheffield United
82'🟨Lewis Koumas · Stoke

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
19Shots7
6On target3
5Corners3
12Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedStoke
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.610.67
cards avg (last 5)2.003.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBramall Lane
coach days330.0055.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.60-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)8.207.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.642.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.07
dominance (last 5)0.500.41
elo1429.311460.22
elo momentum (last 5)11.107.31
eye test v1-0.420.12
eye trend v1-0.210.44
first sub minute (last 10)64.4055.40
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.81
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.830.75
league points21.0012.00
league rank4.0019.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2078.40
possession avg (last 5)48.4046.20
rest days2.793.80
scorer concentration0.400.25
season ppg1.911.09
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-6.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.2012.20
skill v1-0.16-0.20
solidity v11.06-1.06
sot against avg (last 5)3.006.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.80
squad age24.2128.32
state index0.01-0.27
sterile dominance v10.16-0.30
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.28
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
travel km—63.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80
xg against avg (last 5)0.921.96
xg for avg (last 5)0.771.23