← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 42% | 2.31 |
| Luton win | 31% | 3.16 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Coventry −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Liam Kitching · Coventry |
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 17' | 🟨 | Alfie Doughty · Luton |
| 18' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 22' | 🟨 | Mark McGuinness · Luton |
| 37' | ⚽ | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Thomas Holmes · Luton |
| 59' | ⚽ | Ellis Simms · Coventry |
| 76' | ⚽ | Victor Torp · Coventry |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ben Sheaf · Coventry |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Holmes · Luton |
| 90' | 🟥 | Thomas Holmes · Luton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Haji Wright · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 26 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | The Coventry Building Society Arena |
| coach days | 2796.00 | 725.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 4.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1463.37 | 1459.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.48 | -19.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| league points | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 3.69 | 2.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.76 |
| solidity v1 | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 28.34 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 95.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.15 |