← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 36% | 2.70 |
| Derby win | 35% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.35 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Derby +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.81 |
| Over | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Dane Scarlett · Oxford |
| 19' | 🟨 | Tyler Goodrham · Oxford |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ben Osborn · Derby |
| 45' | 🟨 | Callum Elder · Derby |
| 50' | 🟨 | Corey Blackett-Taylor · Derby |
| 55' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Derby |
| 76' | 🟨 | Eiran Joe Cashin · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Kassam Stadium |
| coach days | 356.00 | 782.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1556.24 | 1611.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.64 | -19.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -0.86 |
| solidity v1 | -0.22 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.67 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 0.82 |