← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 73% | 1.33 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.54 |
| Watford win | 10% | 11.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Leeds −1.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.62 |
| Under | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Largie Ramazani · Leeds |
| 7' | ⚽ | Brenden Aaronson · Leeds |
| 35' | 🟨 | Festy Ebosele · Watford |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ao Tanaka · Leeds |
| 47' | ⚽ | Kwadwo Baah · Watford |
| 59' | 🟨 | Junior Firpo · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 479.00 | 235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 1.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1769.49 | 1587.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.98 | -25.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.99 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 1.58 | -1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.49 | 29.52 |
| state index | 1.25 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 249.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 1.21 |