← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 48% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| Watford win | 25% | 3.82 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Luton −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
| 11' | ⚽ | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 16' | 🟨 | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 35' | 🟨 | Alfie Doughty · Luton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 47' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Daiki Hashioka · Luton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jacob Brown · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 718.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.02 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1457.76 | 1416.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.39 | -11.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| league points | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | 0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | -1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.56 | 29.77 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 26.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 2.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.47 |