← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 48% | 2.01 |
| Watford win | 27% | 3.60 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.85 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Middlesbrough +0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.66 |
| Under | 42% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
| 54' | ⚽ | George Edmundson · Middlesbrough |
| 75' | ⚽ | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 87' | ⚽ | Kwadwo Baah · Watford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Baah · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 218.00 | 735.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1590.06 | 1690.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.23 | 15.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 69.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| league points | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.75 |
| solidity v1 | -1.71 | 1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 29.00 | 24.11 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 330.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.25 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.50 |