← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United win | 48% | 55% | 2.05 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Luton win | 25% | 18% | 4.02 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Sheffield United −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Sheffield United |
| 27' | 🟨 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United |
| 29' | 🟨 | Reuell Walters · Luton |
| 33' | 🟨 | Oliver Arblaster · Sheffield United |
| 52' | ⚽ | Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Sheffield United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| coach days | 309.00 | 704.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 4.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1663.42 | 1622.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.67 | -16.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.60 |
| league points | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -0.35 |
| solidity v1 | 2.03 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.50 | 28.24 |
| state index | 1.12 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 179.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.19 |