← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Wed, Oct 2, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 52% | 44% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.77 | fair |
| Portsmouth win | 22% | 34% | 4.50 | value: +51% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Portsmouth −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Thomas Cannon · Stoke |
| 26' | 🟨 | Paddy Lane · Portsmouth |
| 29' | ⚽ | Mark O'Mahony · Portsmouth |
| 43' | ⚽ | Thomas Cannon · Stoke |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sam Gallagher · Stoke |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Thomas Cannon · Stoke |
| 51' | ⚽ | Thomas Cannon · Stoke |
| 53' | ⚽ | Andrew Moran · Stoke |
| 55' | 🟨 | Andrew Moran · Stoke |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jun-Ho Bae · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 31.00 | 640.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 4.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1555.38 | 1598.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.55 | -37.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.61 | -0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.84 |
| solidity v1 | -0.83 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 24.99 | 25.51 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 255.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 0.80 |