← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 59% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
| Derby win | 17% | 6.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Derby −0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.84 |
| Over | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Dennis Cirkin · Sunderland |
| 36' | 🟨 | Marcus Harness · Derby |
| 40' | ⚽ | Jobe Bellingham · Sunderland |
| 55' | ⚽ | Wilson Isidor · Sunderland |
| 59' | 🟨 | Chris Mepham · Sunderland |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kenzo Goudmijn · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 92.00 | 761.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1472.34 | 1279.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.67 | 18.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.00 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -1.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.71 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.43 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 23.29 | — |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 222.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.06 |