← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 45% | 44% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Norwich win | 27% | 30% | 3.59 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Norwich +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.92 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Pascal Struijk · Leeds |
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 22' | 🟨 | Joe Rothwell · Leeds |
| 30' | 🟨 | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 38' | 🟨 | Callum Doyle · Norwich |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jayden Bogle · Leeds |
| 60' | ⚽ | Largie Ramazani · Leeds |
| 66' | 🟨 | Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 92.00 | 458.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1663.29 | 1763.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.65 | 21.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 66.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | 1.01 |
| solidity v1 | 0.38 | 1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.94 | 24.52 |
| state index | 0.60 | 1.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 230.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 0.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.53 |