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Coventry 3–0 Blackburn

← EFL Championship 2024-25 Β· Tue, Oct 1, 06:45 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Busby

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry win46%2.10
Draw27%3.59
Blackburn win26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry βˆ’0.2554%1.81
Blackburn βˆ’0.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.85
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Jake Bidwell · Coventry
48'⚽Haji Wright · Coventry
58'🟨Ben Sheaf · Coventry
60'🟨Todd Cantwell · Blackburn
67'🟨Hayden Carter · Blackburn
81'🟨John Buckley · Blackburn
84'⚽Brandon Thomas-Asante · Coventry

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots10
8On target3
5Corners1
12Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCoventryBlackburn
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.640.61
cards avg (last 5)2.603.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueThe Coventry Building Society Arena
coach days2771.00243.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.812.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.03
dominance (last 5)0.500.55
elo1469.591490.66
elo momentum (last 5)-39.6942.02
eye test v1-0.150.11
eye trend v10.22-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)54.8658.29
form points (last 5)2.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.901.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v1β€”0.74
league points5.0015.00
league rank22.003.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8076.20
possession avg (last 5)47.8047.60
rest days3.203.30
scorer concentration0.400.29
season ppg0.712.14
shot diff avg (last 5)0.602.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.2012.40
skill v1-0.09-0.42
solidity v10.061.44
sot against avg (last 5)5.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.435.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.00
state index-0.820.39
sterile dominance v1-0.28-0.37
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.310.20
threat rate (last 5)0.280.27
travel kmβ€”157.10
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.000.68
xg for avg (last 5)1.161.02