← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Davies
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 43% | 2.30 |
| Watford win | 31% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Sunderland +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.94 |
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Festy Ebosele · Watford |
| 30' | 🟨 | Festy Ebosele · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jobe Bellingham · Sunderland |
| 49' | ⚽ | Wilson Isidor · Sunderland |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Tom Dele-Bashiru · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 211.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1410.20 | 1482.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.00 | 54.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | -0.69 | 1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.19 | 22.89 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 368.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 0.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.47 |