← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 59% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.43 |
| Stoke win | 18% | 5.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −1 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Middlesbrough −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.62 |
| Under | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Wouter Burger · Stoke |
| 27' | 🟨 | Million Manhoef · Stoke |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ben Gannon-Doak · Middlesbrough |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
| 42' | 🟨 | Thomas Cannon · Stoke |
| 43' | 🟨 | George Edmundson · Middlesbrough |
| 45' | 🟨 | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ben Gannon-Doak · Middlesbrough |
| 59' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
| 66' | 🟨 | Finn Azaz · Middlesbrough |
| 69' | 🟨 | Sam Gallagher · Stoke |
| 73' | ⚽ | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
| 82' | 🟨 | Michael Rose · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 728.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1669.13 | 1563.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.30 | -38.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.30 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.79 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.27 | -0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 1.23 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.11 | 26.56 |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 187.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.13 |