← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 52% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.82 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 22% | 23% | 4.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Cardiff −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | William Fish · Cardiff |
| 18' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 22' | 🟨 | Jamilu Collins · Cardiff |
| 22' | ⚽ | Mohamed Belloumi · Hull |
| 28' | 🟨 | Sean McLoughlin · Hull |
| 35' | ⚽ | Mohamed Belloumi · Hull |
| 51' | ⚽ | Óscar Zambrano · Hull |
| 57' | 🟨 | Callum O'Dowda · Cardiff |
| 69' | 🟨 | Regan Slater · Hull |
| 75' | 🟨 | Perry Ng · Cardiff |
| 76' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | The MKM Stadium |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Chris Bedia · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 89.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.87 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1620.13 | 1480.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.08 | -24.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| league points | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | -0.84 |
| solidity v1 | 0.44 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.54 | 27.14 |
| state index | 0.08 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 317.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 0.46 |