← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 46% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
| Watford win | 28% | 28% | 3.58 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Watford −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Callum Doyle · Norwich |
| 26' | ⚽ | Ryan Andrews · Watford |
| 36' | 🟨 | Daniel Jebbison · Watford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Borja Sainz · Norwich |
| 54' | ⚽ | Marcelino Núñez · Norwich |
| 74' | 🟨 | Kellen Fisher · Norwich |
| 89' | ⚽ | Ben Chrisene · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Chrisene · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 82.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1639.19 | 1612.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.91 | 25.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 0.65 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.23 | 26.22 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 159.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.41 |