← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 20, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 45% | 41% | 2.16 | fair |
| Hull win | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Hull −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ben Gibson · Stoke |
| 63' | ⚽ | Kasey Palmer · Hull |
| 77' | ⚽ | Regan Slater · Hull |
| 79' | ⚽ (og) | Ben Wilmot · Hull |
| 85' | 🟨 | Emre Tezgel · Stoke |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ivor Pandur · Hull |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
| 89' | 🟨 | Liam Millar · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 19.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1580.32 | 1603.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.06 | -31.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.66 |
| league points | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.31 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.50 |
| solidity v1 | -0.35 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 23.71 | 25.59 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 146.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 0.96 |