← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 50% | 43% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.67 | fair |
| Portsmouth win | 23% | 35% | 4.21 | value: +46% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom +0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Portsmouth +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Josh Maja · West Brom |
| 9' | 🟨 | Christian Saydee · Portsmouth |
| 28' | 🟨 | Will Norris · Portsmouth |
| 35' | 🟨 | Josh Murphy · Portsmouth |
| 43' | 🟨 | Semi Ajayi · West Brom |
| 51' | ⚽ | Alex Mowatt · West Brom |
| 63' | 🟨 | Tom Fellows · West Brom |
| 85' | 🟨 | Connor Ogilvie · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marlon Pack · Portsmouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alex Mowatt · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 6 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 623.00 | 715.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1620.15 | 1701.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.47 | 38.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 67.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| league points | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 0.90 |
| solidity v1 | -1.42 | 1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 27.75 |
| state index | 0.03 | 1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 200.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.31 | 0.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.81 |