← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 38% | 2.57 |
| Luton win | 32% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.65 |
| Over | 41% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Teden Mengi · Luton |
| 22' | 🟨 | Casper De Norre · Millwall |
| 41' | 🟨 | Teden Mengi · Luton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Thomas Kaminski · Luton |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alfie Doughty · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shaun Hutchinson · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.85 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | — | 2.80 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 226.00 | 683.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.52 |
| elo | 1493.06 | 1458.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | — | -52.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.33 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | — | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | — | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | — | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | — | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| league points | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.67 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 14.69 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.50 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.33 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.66 |
| state index | -0.08 | -1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.58 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.51 |