← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United win | 52% | 55% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.97 | fair |
| Watford win | 23% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Watford −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (og) | Daniel Bachmann · Sheffield United |
| 49' | 🟨 | Yasser Larouci · Watford |
| 52' | 🟨 | Francisco Sierralta · Watford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Callum O'Hare · Sheffield United |
| 85' | 🟨 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Cooper · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Souttar · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Jebbison · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| coach days | 275.00 | 184.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1622.75 | 1622.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.38 | 33.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| league points | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.78 | 28.21 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 204.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.22 |