← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 48% | 41% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.70 | fair |
| Portsmouth win | 25% | 31% | 4.01 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Sunderland +0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ (og) | Zak Swanson · Sunderland |
| 44' | 🟨 | Chris Rigg · Sunderland |
| 51' | ⚽ | Alan Browne · Sunderland |
| 56' | ⚽ | Romaine Mundle · Sunderland |
| 78' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Kamara · Portsmouth |
| 88' | 🟨 | Zak Swanson · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kusini Yengi · Portsmouth |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Luke O'Nien · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 608.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1638.92 | 1609.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.68 | 21.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | -1.42 | 1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 22.97 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 458.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.41 | 0.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 0.99 |