← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 44% | 72% | 2.21 | value: +60% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 17% | 3.40 | fair |
| Blackburn win | 28% | 10% | 3.48 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Blackburn −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Lyle Foster · Burnley |
| 23' | ⚽ | Andreas Weimann · Blackburn |
| 31' | 🟨 | Makhtar Gueye · Blackburn |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Blackburn |
| 42' | 🟨 | Hannibal Mejbri · Burnley |
| 49' | 🟨 | Callum Brittain · Blackburn |
| 53' | 🟨 | Hayden Carter · Blackburn |
| 57' | 🟨 | Makhtar Gueye · Blackburn |
| 57' | 🟥 | Makhtar Gueye · Blackburn |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ryan Hedges · Blackburn |
| 67' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| Luca Koleosho · Burnley |
| 76' | 🟨 | Lyle Foster · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | CJ Egan-Riley · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aynsley Pears · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 61.00 | 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1720.22 | 1599.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.16 | 51.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.73 |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.28 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.09 | 26.75 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 18.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.63 |