← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 36% | 2.70 |
| Stoke win | 35% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Stoke +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
| 47' | ⚽ | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 49' | ⚽ | Ryan Andrews · Watford |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jordan Thompson · Stoke |
| 73' | ⚽ | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Francisco Sierralta · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Laurent · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 169.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1415.20 | 1494.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.41 | 20.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.81 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.70 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.72 | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.68 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 191.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |