← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United win | 56% | 62% | 1.73 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.92 | fair |
| QPR win | 19% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Sheffield United −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United |
| 11' | 🟨 | Jake Clarke-Salter · QPR |
| 13' | ⚽ | Kieffer Moore · Sheffield United |
| 31' | 🟨 | Vinícius Souza · Sheffield United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jonathan Varane · QPR |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jimmy Dunne · QPR |
| 72' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jack Colback · QPR |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jack Colback · QPR |
| 83' | 🟥 | Jack Colback · QPR |
| 88' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| Lyndon Dykes · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 260.00 | 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1623.85 | 1563.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.51 | 28.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.76 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.10 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -1.57 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.31 | 28.92 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 223.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.04 |