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Bristol City 4–3 Millwall

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bristol City win46%2.10
Draw30%3.29
Millwall win25%3.97

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Millwall −0.553%1.83
Bristol City −0.547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.61
Over40%2.42

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Anis Mehmeti · Bristol City
12'⚽Sinclair Armstrong · Bristol City
49'🟨Casper De Norre · Millwall
50'🟨Mark Sykes · Bristol City
51'⚽Romain Esse · Millwall
54'⚽ (pen)Tom Bradshaw · Millwall
64'⚽Duncan Watmore · Millwall
67'🟨Lukas Jensen · Millwall
78'⚽Fally Mayulu · Bristol City
88'⚽Scott Twine · Bristol City

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
11Shots15
6On target4
5Corners4
11Fouls12
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBristol CityMillwall
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.630.73
cards avg (last 5)1.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAshton Gate Stadium
coach days290.00198.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.15
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.406.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.005.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.362.80
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.09
dominance (last 5)0.500.53
elo1605.461584.91
elo momentum (last 5)-10.1733.87
first sub minute (last 10)60.9058.30
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.480.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.780.76
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8073.80
possession avg (last 5)56.2042.80
rest days7.107.10
season ppg1.000.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.602.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.4011.60
skill v10.82-0.77
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
squad age27.7625.29
state index0.260.56
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.340.80
xg for avg (last 5)1.291.11