← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 46% | 40% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.29 | fair |
| Millwall win | 25% | 30% | 3.97 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Bristol City −0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Anis Mehmeti · Bristol City |
| 12' | ⚽ | Sinclair Armstrong · Bristol City |
| 49' | 🟨 | Casper De Norre · Millwall |
| 50' | 🟨 | Mark Sykes · Bristol City |
| 51' | ⚽ | Romain Esse · Millwall |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Tom Bradshaw · Millwall |
| 64' | ⚽ | Duncan Watmore · Millwall |
| 67' | 🟨 | Lukas Jensen · Millwall |
| 78' | ⚽ | Fally Mayulu · Bristol City |
| 88' | ⚽ | Scott Twine · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 290.00 | 198.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1605.46 | 1584.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.17 | 33.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 0.01 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.77 | 29.13 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.11 |