← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 10, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 40% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 |
| Watford win | 29% | 3.30 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Francisco Sierralta · Watford |
| 22' | ⚽ | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ryan Leonard · Millwall |
| 55' | ⚽ | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 74' | ⚽ | Duncan Watmore · Millwall |
| 86' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Millwall |
| 86' | 🟨 | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 88' | ⚽ | Duncan Watmore · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mileta Rajović · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mileta Rajović · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 191.00 | 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1596.89 | 1587.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 61.02 | -0.57 |
| eye test v1 | — | -1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | — | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 26.11 |
| state index | 1.10 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | — | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | — | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | — | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 0.76 |