← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Aug 9, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 45% | 47% | 2.20 | value: +4% |
| Derby win | 28% | 26% | 3.59 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Derby −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.86 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Tom Barkhuizen · Derby |
| 19' | ⚽ | Tyrhys Dolan · Blackburn |
| 67' | ⚽ | Curtis Nelson · Derby |
| 72' | ⚽ | Andreas Weimann · Blackburn |
| 76' | ⚽ | Sammie Szmodics · Blackburn |
| 82' | 🟨 | James Collins · Derby |
| 84' | ⚽ | Yuki Ohashi · Blackburn |
| 87' | 🟨 | Tyrhys Dolan · Blackburn |
| 88' | ⚽ | Kane Wilson · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eiran Joe Cashin · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackburn | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Ewood Park |
| coach days | 190.00 | 708.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1575.05 | 1624.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.90 | 16.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 61.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | -1.65 |
| solidity v1 | -0.25 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.52 | 29.24 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.57 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 113.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | — |