← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 05:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 73% | 82% | 1.30 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 17% | 12% | 5.60 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 10% | 6% | 11.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal −1.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Vitória SC −1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 61% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 39% | 2.54 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 2 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.