← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: José Bessa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 73% | 79% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.75 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 10% | 7% | 9.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto −1.5 | 53% | 1.81 |
| CD Nacional −1.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 35% | 2.83 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Francisco Moura · FC Porto |
| 13' | 🟨 | Matheus Dias · CD Nacional |
| 26' | 🟨 | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 43' | 🟨 | Fábio Vieira · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paulinho Bóia · CD Nacional |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 66' | 🟥 | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 80' | 🟨 | Léo Santos · CD Nacional |
| 83' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Mora · FC Porto |
| 88' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| Francisco Gonçalves · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gustavo García · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 136.00 | 686.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1787.81 | 1443.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.42 | -8.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 68.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.48 | 27.26 |
| state index | 0.82 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.36 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.95 |