← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Cláudio Pereira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense win | 35% | 35% | 2.71 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 34% | 32% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.18 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Farense +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| CD Santa Clara +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +3% |
| Over | 42% | 37% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Frederico Venâncio · CD Santa Clara |
| 32' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · CD Santa Clara |
| 40' | 🟨 | Marco Moreno · Farense |
| 42' | ⚽ | Gabriel Silva · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Neto · Farense |
| 48' | ⚽ | Serginho · CD Santa Clara |
| 49' | 🟨 | Rony Lopes · Farense |
| 57' | 🟨 | Serginho · CD Santa Clara |
| 64' | 🟨 | Wendel Silva · CD Santa Clara |
| 78' | 🟨 | Adriano Firmino · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Farense | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| venue | Estádio de São Lúis |
| coach days | 258.00 | 686.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.97 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1461.94 | 1561.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.69 | 30.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| league points | 27.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 1.20 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.57 | 27.51 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.45 |